台湾人眼里的华为

www.net130.com     日期:2006-8-13    浏览次数:
作者:陈怀临    出处:系统软件研究所

这是一个非常有意思的併购,纯粹是掏钱买人: 
Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO - message board) announced late Thursday that it is buying routing software startup BCN Systems Inc., the company it backed to develop next-generation routing software (see Cisco to Acquire 
BCN ). It“s not clear that BCN had any other corporate or venture capital investors. 

BCN has been actively recruiting top routing talent from Juniper Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR - message board) and other firms, according to sources familiar with the company (see BCN Joins Router Race ). Cisco says it is paying $34 million for the part of BCN that it doesn“t already own and that the price tag could climb to as much as $122 million if BCN meets certain goals. 
BCN Systems is a provider of networking software design that has developed a unique networking software architecture for routing applications, Cisco says in a statement. The company“s interest in BCN was first disclosed in Cisco“s September filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 
BCN was founded in April 2004 and has 45 employees. It is led by founder and CEO Michael Beesley, a systems software expert who worked on mid-range routers at Cisco, contributing to products such as the 7200. He then moved 
to Juniper, where he was part of the team building the flagship M40 and also helped out on the high-end T640. 
The startup“s formation and acquisition is Cisco“s third move of late to secure highly sought routing expertise. Recently the company converted routing software expert Tony Li from feared competitor to salaried employee (see 
Tony Li Returns to Cisco ). And, earlier this year, Cisco moved beyond its tradition of not acquiring direct competitors when it nabbed the assets and employees of Procket Networks, the company Li founded (see Cisco to Pay 
$89M for Procket Assets ). 

再看一下CISCO对硅谷公认的杰出人才TONY LI的处理:Cisco/Procket Deal Imminent Today“s the big day for news on whether Procket will be acquired, say several sources. 
Two sources close to Procket Networks Inc. have told Light Reading that the company“s fate will be made today. As ever, there“s intrigue here because only one of the two sources would name the acquiring party -- and that source 
says its Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO - message board). Foundry Networks 
Inc. (Nasdaq: FDRY - message board) has also been mentioned as a suitor, but that now appears less likely -- and Cisco certainly has the deeper wallet to make the deal happen 
The deal, reportedly worth $80 million, has been expected this week since a flurry of reports detailing a potential deal dropped last week (see Cisco May Pocket Procket ). 
Cisco has since put forth that, while it would never buy a competing product, it doesn“t mind acquiring the talent that built the competing product. 
"I“m not going to buy another router company for a router," Chambers told a Bear Stearns investment conference yesterday, according to reports by Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. "I could not be more comfortable with 
our routing strategy... 
"Fifty really sharp engineers can bring a product to market quicker than 500 can, so if ever there is a talent acquisition that makes sense to me in the market, I don“t hesitate," Chambers added, according the Reuters report. 
However it“s sliced, Cisco is about to purchase one of the routing upstarts that, if nothing else, provided a catalyst for Cisco to get its own next-generation core router, the CRS-1, built and released after several years of fits and 
starts (see Cisco Unveils the HFR ). 
While it will be interesting to see what Cisco will do with the technology, it will be more interesting to watch the marketing story unfold. Never before has a routing market leader announced its own next-generation product, then 
purchased a competitor solely for staffing reasons. 

另外CISCO关於P-CUBE 的併购。 

In October, Cisco closed the deal to acquire privately held P-Cube, a developer of IP service control platforms, for $200 million (see Cisco Completes P-Cube Acquisition ). 
The acquisition gives Cisco the tools to investigate the traffic stream, giving service providers precise control over how their networks are being used. In fact, whether it was a self-fulfilling prophecy or not, Cisco’s purchase of P-Cube looks to have legitimized the entire traffic management technology market while giving Cisco the strongest company in the space. The P-Cube aquisition has sparked speculation over what traffic management 
company will be acquired next. Candidates still looking for a dance partner include Allot Communications, Ellacoya Networks Inc., Packeteer Inc. (Nasdaq: 
PKTR - message board), and Sandvine Inc. 

我们再来看一看CISCO是如何进军HOME和SMALL OFFICE NETWORKING ROUTER/GATEWAY市场的。 
2003年3月CISCO用500MILLION股票交换一举买下著名的LINKSYS。下面是一些摘要。 


Officials of Cisco Systems Inc. said today they plan to buy home and small office networking vendor The Linksys Group Inc. of Irvine, Calif. The move marks Cisco“s first foray into the burgeoning market for wired and wireless networking gear for consumers and SOHO (small office/home office) users. 

According to officials, Cisco will issue common stock worth $500 million to acquire Linksys. ADVERTISEMENTA 
"Fueled by consumer broadband adoption, the home networking space has experienced mass market acceptance. Linksys has captured a strong position in this growing market by developing an extensive, easy-to-use product line for the home and small office," said Cisco President and CEO John Chambers in a statement. "This acquisition is a solid example of Cisco“s strategy to broaden its 
end-to-end portfolio of network solutions into high-growth markets such as wireless, voice-over-IP and storage area networking." Privately held Linksys makes some 70 different products, including wireless routers and access points, wireless network adapters, and wireless print servers, as well as wired products such as Ethernet routers and cable modems, unmanaged switches and hubs, print servers, and network attached storage. 

The deal will make Linksys a division of Cisco under the direction of Charlie Giancarlo, senior vice president and general manager of product development at Cisco in San Jose, Calif. Products will continue to be sold under the 
Linksys brand through its existing retail, distributor and e-commerce channels, officials said. 

从上述一些摘抄文章,我们可以看到,CISCO的成长就是一个大鱼吃小鱼的过程。当 然这里有一点与生物界不同。被吃的小鱼很愉快,被吃后就成了大鱼的一部分了。 大鱼也同时长大了。 

那麼华为应该吃什麼样的小鱼呢? 

笔者的个人观点是:至少对於数据线业务而言,下面是非常重要的和非常有可能华 为将投资或併购的。 *网络安全存取产品 
这里我们并非指FIREWALL/VPN。IPSEC基本上已经比较成熟。而且公司在这方面的投 资基本上已经很多。我不认为华为或其他公司缺少这块业务。但是SSL/VPN方面华为应该是不强,或者就没有涉足的。请注意,网络界的口号正在向这样的方面转换: 
首先是安全的网络;然后是高速的网络。没有一个TOTAL SOLUTION的网络解决方案 的华为将在市场上得到惩罚。一个客户希望的是这样的:同一家公司的ROUTER, SWITCH,SECURITY产品。否则对其维护和投资的费用将非常大。 

* 网络安全防护 
另外,网络侵入检测(IDS)和网络防毒(AV)产品正是热点。我个人估计华为也是无瑕顾及。或者是浅尝輒止,很难朝高端产品的方向发展。在这方面,ENDPOINT的网络安全也是一个非常重要的东西,比如,网络最脆弱的地方就是内部的网络。一个染毒的便携计算机可以轻易的通过DHCP将内部网络摧毁。 

* VoIP与网络安全 
VOIP无疑将是非常大的一个市场。在安全方面也将是一个非常大的空间。 

*存储设备与安全(STORAGE 和SECURITY)。 

*安全的无线产品 

* 低端市场安全的ROUTER和GATEWAY。这是一个非常大的市场。我相信华为将很快注意到这一点,或已经注意到了这一点。否则的话,可惜。 

如果上述是华为将要投资的方向的话,那麼华为READY了吗?光是有钱就READY吗? 答案是肯定的:光有钱或股票是不够的。否则,一个公司会被一条小鱼噎死和噎的失去竞争机会的。 

6。华为的挑战 

上一节我们讨论了,为了华为的可持续性发展,华为在3,4年后会开始併购中小形的公司,并列举了一些可能的方向,特别对其数据线业务。 

这些将来的事情是要有充分的準备的。不小心是完全可能将公司拖的非常狼狈,或更严重一点,整个公司垮掉的。 

但我们坚信华为必须迟早步入这种商业运作,象世界上其他巨头公司一样,通过 「PLAY MONEY」玩钱来在市场中生存,OFFESIVE的併购来壮大自己,DEFENSIVE的并购来消灭潜在的对手。 

那麼我们希望华为利用现在的3到4年,使得自己READY,把自己调整好,以迎接将来的BURST的膨胀,一举成为世界级的大公司。 

那麼那些方面要READY呢?有没有前面的经验和教训我们可以参阅呢?答案是有的。 

古人云:灭六国者,六国也。换句话说,成秦之大业者,秦也,非六国也。这是一个非常值得深思的事情。秦成就霸业的几个重要的基础是:商鞅变法;远交近攻;合眾连横。 

笔者个人认为商鞅变法是其根本。为什麼这样说呢?远交近攻和合眾连横等等都是形而上的谋略。而商鞅变法不然,其是一种对秦国形而下的东西,奠定了秦国发展的根基,比如对各种利益的分配,对。另外,我觉得商鞅的政策里已经具备了「天下为公」的思想。 

谈古必为喻今,否则就是一个酸儒,无一用处。我们从秦国的霸业可以学习到什麼呢?对华为的领导者的帮助是什麼呢? 

我个人认为是这样的:华为的敌人是华为自己;华为的将成功来自华为自己的不断改革。 

笔者认为,所谓的「远交近攻;合眾连横」,影射到企业运作上,其实就是所谓的「BUSINESS OPERATION」,或本文开始所提及的「商业运作」。就是通过各种这样的联合,合作,併购,来加强自己的影响力和销售自己的产品,比如华为与3COM的合作,华为在没有自己的CORE ROUTER之前与AVICI INC。的合作。(笔者註:华为的 
NS5000其实就是AVICI的TSR CORE ROUTER,华为是RE-SELLER。就像现在3COM贴标籤卖华为的东西类似的一个道理) 

华为目前已经宣布了其自己研发的NE5000E CORE ROUTER。业界议论此举与其想击败港湾网络的NetHammer有关,要争PERformANCE国内第一。当然,目前华为在CORE ROUTER方面主要的精力放在海外市场,如第三世界国家等等。目前,在CORE ROUTER方面,性能方面的比较基本如下: 

CISCO HFR/CRS-1 92 Tbit/s 
HUAWEI NE5000E 41 Tbit/s in a 64-chassis configuration (OC192 interfaces 
only) 
JUNIPER T640 1.28 Tbit/s by linking four T640s together 
AVICI TSR 5.6 Tbit/s achieved by adding 
switch cards in up to 14 chassis; 
CHIARO Enstara 3.125 Tbit/s multichassis 
configuration consisting of 315 slots of 10 Gbit/s 
公司网页分别为: 
CISCO:www.cisco.com
HUAWEI:www.huawei.com.cn 
JUNIPER:www.juniper.net; 
AVICI:www.avici.com/ 
CHIARO: www.chiaro.com/ 

NE5000E面临的挑战很多,最大的问题就是:CARRIER是不会轻易相信一个CORE ROUTER的稳定性的。通常要把一个新的CORE ROUTER测试好几年,在有信心DEPLOY之前。CARRIER的这种谨慎的做法是应该的,当然,这也导致的许多目标是CARRIER的小公司撑不下去。 

在INTERNET APPLIANCE方面,评性能参数有时好像就像有些浅薄的女人比化妆品一样,其实是表象。事情往往是:一个产品的DEAL并不完全取决於性能参数。(当然,你不能走极端,性能太慢) 

我们换一个角度和立场来研究这个问题:CISCO的HFR CRS仅仅是一个快速的ROUTER吗?CISCO的HFR后面有没有隐含著CISCO长期发展的谋略?答案是:HFR是世界上目前最先进的ROUTER,更为重要的是,HFR是CISCO为了解决长期的LEGACY问题,」治理整顿「而推出的下一代网络操作系统IOX。这个操作系统将使得CISCO可以从过去的LEGACY包 
袱中走出来,去拥抱将来的技术,併购得公司,并且一步一步,将CISCO从一个商业运作的公司进化成一个「IP服务业「的公司,从而达到其最高境界,就像IBM, AT&T一样,CONSULTING和服务业将是将来CISCO的根本和目标,也是CISCO能够长期生存的不二选择。CISCO CEO JOHN CHAMBLES可谓是世界上一流的人才,正在将CISCO领导 
朝向一个崭新的天地。笔者由此可见:解决好公司技术架构对公司长期发展战略的重要性。 

当然华为和JUNIPER都还没有发展到这个境界,对华为来讲,就是要学习CISCO等的经验,避免其走过的LEARNING CURVE。华为的下一个目标是CISCO现在的境界--一个成熟的商业运作公司。 

既然HFR对於CISCO解决其现在公司内部技术架构有重大意义,我们就来把HFR作为一个CASE STUDY来调查一下,试图从中发现一些CISCO过去的痛苦和对将来的期盼。 

 

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